60 games played. 4 teams left. Let’s talk about the carnage.

32 of 66 brackets have an eliminated champion pick. Read that again. Nearly half the pool is missing out on the 32-point champion bonus. It’s not impossible to win without it, but you’re bringing a knife to a gunfight.

Duke was a mass extinction event. 14 brackets picked Duke to win it all. Zero of them are alive. That’s 21% of the pool, wiped out by a broken foot (Caleb Foster) and UConn ending Duke’s run in the Elite 8. If your last name is Brinker, Gurzo, or Tirrell, you had Duke. All of you. Between you, you fielded 7 Duke championship picks. You are a support group now.

The three survivors (and one nobody believed in). Only Arizona (17 brackets), Michigan (14), and Connecticut (3) remain as living champion picks. Illinois is in the Final Four too, but not a single person in the pool picked them to win it all. Zero. If Illinois cuts down the nets, every single bracket in the pool gets the asterisk. Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, Purdue, Arkansas, Florida, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Duke — all gone. If you picked any of those, your ceiling is capped and your bracket has a permanent asterisk.

Mr. Awesome is living up to the name. 108 points, 1st place, Michigan as champion, all 4 Final Four teams still alive, max possible of 172. That would be an all-time pool record. Ten points clear of 2nd place. If Michigan wins the title, this thing is over. Even if they don’t, he’s sitting at 108 with enough cushion that he might hold on anyway. He’s been the best bracket in the pool since the Sweet 16 and hasn’t looked back.

The kaylee autry memorial bracket. She was 3rd after Round 1 with Michigan State as her champion. She now sits 44th with 67 points, zero Final Four teams alive, and a max possible of… 67. She literally cannot gain another point. Her bracket is a museum piece. A cautionary tale. A tombstone. Rest in peace.

snapper1’s freefall continues. 1st place after Round 2 with 54 points. Now 19th at 78. Only 1 Final Four team left (Arizona). Went from planning the victory speech to hoping for a participation trophy in two rounds.

Pete Tirrell is frozen in amber. 3rd place at 93 points. Duke champion, eliminated. Max possible: 93. He can’t gain a single point. He can only watch as others pass him. That’s a special kind of torture — good enough to podium, but unable to move.

The Final Four scenarios — check the scenarios page. Eight possible outcomes remain. The short version:

• Michigan wins it all: Mr. Awesome runs away with it at 172. Nobody’s close.
• Arizona wins it all: Breezy(3) takes it at 162. It’s a tighter race.
• Connecticut wins it all: Rachael Bell(2) sneaks in at 155. The ultimate contrarian play — only 3 of 66 picked UConn.

The UConn angle. Only 3 brackets picked Connecticut to win. If the Huskies cut down the nets, Rachael Bell(2), missdixie7, and Jeff/Lynne(2) are the only ones who benefit from the 32-point champion bonus. In a pool of 66, that’s being right when 95% of people were wrong. That’s how you win pools.

Where it stands. There are 8 possible outcomes left. Across all 8, only 3 people can finish in 1st: Mr. Awesome (4 scenarios), Breezy (3), and Rachael Bell (1). Only 9 people can finish in the top 3 and take home money: Mr. Awesome, Breezy, Rachael Bell, Jeff/Lynne, Will Huynh, Chad Dilcos, AnnRustrum, Dan Brinker, and missdixie7. Check the scenarios page to see exactly where you land.

About those “experts.” I imported brackets from ESPN’s Jay Bilas (74 points) and CBS’s Seth Davis (76 points) as expert picks this year. 30 of your 66 brackets are beating Bilas. 26 are beating Seth Davis. Turns out you don’t need a TV contract to pick a bracket.

Three games left. May the odds be in your favor. For 57 of you, they aren’t.